The Federal Reserve is poised to announce its rate hike decision today at 2 p.m. Eastern time, followed by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s news conference at 2:30 p.m. where he is likely to face questions about plans for interest rates, recession odds, and inflation trajectory, especially in key categories that show limited progress.
Besides today’s expected rate hike, the Fed has hinted at one more increase later this year. However, Powell and his colleagues face the challenge of determining when to halt further hikes.
Economic indicators are complex and often lag behind policy actions, making the reading of the economy in real-time a challenging task. The effects of previous rate hikes, coupled with the lingering impact of the banking crisis in March, may continue to influence bank lending and credit conditions.
While the housing market recession seems to be ending, inflation remains above normal levels. “Core” inflation, which excludes food, energy, and housing, continues to show strength due to wage pressures and labor market mismatches in service industries.
Bringing down the stickier sources of inflation might prove difficult without impacting the resilient labor market, which has shown consistent growth and has a record-low unemployment rate of 3.6 percent.
While consumer demand and spending have remained robust, and major banks are scaling back recession forecasts, risks still linger. The Fed’s projection of low growth this year and potential shocks to the economy could impact their plans.
Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell reaffirmed the goal to lower inflation to 2 percent, aiming to minimize economic damage while achieving the target. As the Fed makes its announcement today, the financial markets eagerly await signals on the path ahead amidst economic uncertainties.
